甘肃“5·5"黑风暴小波分析   总被引：8，自引：2，他引：8  

戴新刚  丑纪范  朱姝 《气象》1995,21(2):10-15

用小波变换理论对１９９３年春季甘肃省河西走廊地区一场特大黑风暴进行了分析。结果表明，小波分析能比较客观地将时间序列中不同时间尺度的振动分离开，使我们能清楚地看到黑风暴中的中尺度扰动。  相似文献   

A CASE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EVOLVING INTO A VORTEX^*          下载免费PDF全文

Tao Zuyu  Wang Hongqing  Bai Jie  Zhu Wenqin  Shi Dingpu  Yang Hongmei 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1995,9(2):184-189

A case of mesoscale convective complex(MCC) which evolved into a vortex is documented in this paper.As the MCC entered into the dissipating phase,a well-defined spirally banded structure became visible in the satellite image.The blackbody temperature(TBB) of the residual cold-cloud-shield indicates the vortex existed in the layer from 400 to 250 hPa.According to the upper air analysis,the upper level vortex was an anticyclone.The MCC-generated vortex was visualized in the satellite images because it was located in the subtropical high where the wind field was very weak.  相似文献   

Hydrodynamical Modeling Of Oceanic Vortices   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Xavier Carton 《Surveys in Geophysics》2001,22(3):179-263

Mesoscale coherent vortices are numerous in the ocean.Though they possess various structures in temperature and salinity,they are all long-lived, fairly intense and mostly circular. Thephysical variable which best describes the rotation and the density anomaly associated with coherent vortices is potential vorticity. It is diagnostically related to velocity and pressure, when the vortex is stationary. Stationary vortices can be monopolar (circular or elliptical) or multipolar; their stability analysis shows thattransitions between the various stationary shapes are possible when they become unstable. But stable vortices can also undergo unsteady evolutions when perturbed by environmental effects, likelarge-scale shear or strain fields, -effect or topography. Changes in vortex shapes can also result from vortex interactions. such as the pairing, merger or vertical alignment of two vortices, which depend on their relative polarities and depths. Such interactions transfer energy and enstrophy between scales, and are essential in two-dimensional and in geostrophic turbulence. Finally, in relation with the observations, we describe a few mechanisms of vortex generation.  相似文献   

Experimental superensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar  J. Sanjay  B. K. Basu  A. K. Mitra  D. V. Bhaskar Rao  O. P. Sharma  P. K. Pal  T. N. Krishnamurti 《Natural Hazards》2007,41(3):471-485

This study entails the implementation of an experimental real time forecast capability for tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal basin of North Indian Ocean. This work is being built on the experience gained from a number of recent studies using the concept of superensemble developed at the Florida State University (FSU). Real time hurricane forecasts are one of the major components of superensemble modeling at FSU. The superensemble approach of training followed by real time forecasts produces the best forecasts for tracks and intensity (up to 5 days) of Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific typhoons. Improvements in track forecasts of about 25–35% compared to current operational forecast models has been noted over the Atlantic Ocean basin. The intensity forecasts for hurricanes are only marginally better than the best models. In this paper, we address tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal for the years 1996–2000. The main result from this study is that the position and intensity errors for tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal from the multimodel superensemble are generally less than those of all of the participating models during 1- to 3-day forecasts. Some of the major tropical cyclones, such as the November 1996 Andhra Pradesh cyclone and October 1999 Orissa super cyclone were well handled by this superensemble approach. A conclusion from this study is that the proposed approach may be a viable way to construct improved forecasts of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone positions and intensity.  相似文献   

Impact of Doppler Radar Wind in Simulating the Intensity and Propagation of Rainbands Associated with Mesoscale Convective Complexes Using MM5-3DVAR System     

S. Abhilash  Someshwar Das  S. R. Kalsi  M. Das Gupta  K. Mohankumar  John P. George  S. K. Banerjee  S. B. Thampi  D. Pradhan 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(8-9):1491-1509

Pre-monsoon rainfall around Kolkata (northeastern part of India) is mostly of convective origin as 80% of the seasonal rainfall is produced by Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS). Accurate prediction of the intensity and structure of these convective cloud clusters becomes challenging, mostly because the convective clouds within these clusters are short lived and the inaccuracy in the models initial state to represent the mesoscale details of the true atmospheric state. Besides the role in observing the internal structure of the precipitating systems, Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) provides an important data source for mesoscale and microscale weather analysis and forecasting. An attempt has been made to initialize the storm-scale numerical model using retrieved wind fields from single Doppler radar. In the present study, Doppler wind velocities from the Kolkata Doppler weather radar are assimilated into a mesoscale model, MM5 model using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system for the prediction of intense convective events that occurred during 0600 UTC on 5 May and 0000 UTC on 7 May, 2005. In order to evaluate the impact of the DWR wind data in simulating these severe storms, three experiments were carried out. The results show that assimilation of Doppler radar wind data has a positive impact on the prediction of intensity, organization and propagation of rain bands associated with these mesoscale convective systems. The assimilation system has to be modified further to incorporate the radar reflectivity data so that simulation of the microphysical and thermodynamic structure of these convective storms can be improved.  相似文献   

An Experiment Using the High Resolution Eta and WRF Models to Forecast Heavy Precipitation over India   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Y. V. Rama Rao  H. R. Hatwar  Ahmad Kamal Salah  Y. Sudhakar 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(8-9):1593-1615

In the present study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Eta models, recent heavy rainfall events that occurred (i) over parts of Maharastra during 26 to 27 July, 2005, (ii) over coastal Tamilnadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh during 24 to 28 October, 2005, and (iii) the tropical cyclone of 30 September to 3 October, 2004/Monsoon Depression of 2 to 5 October 2004, that developed during the withdrawal phase of the southwest monsoon season of 2004 have been investigated. Also sensitivity experiments have been conducted with the WRF model to test the impact of microphysical and cumulus parameterization schemes in capturing the extreme weather events. The results show that the WRF model with the microphysical process and cumulus parameterization schemes of Ferrier et al. and Betts-Miller-Janjic was able to capture the heavy rainfall events better than the other schemes. It is also observed that the WRF model was able to predict mesoscale rainfall more realistically in comparison to the Eta model of the same resolution.  相似文献   

大气中对称不稳定机制的动力学分析及暴雨的分析与预报   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

景丽  陆汉城 《气象》2002,28(6):23-27

用气块法从力学角度对对称不稳定机制及在对称不稳定条件下产生的环流进行分析，更全面地定义了对称不稳定及它的产生机制和中尺度环流形成的过程。对暴雨个例诊断分析表明，有些强降水区在降水前和降水过程中存在着不对称不稳定，说明对称不稳定条件下形成的环流对暴雨有引发和加强作用。在以往研究原基础上，总结出了利用常规观测资料分析对称不是否存在，及其能量大小的方法，用它来预报是否降水及降水的强度，从而提高降水预报准确率。  相似文献   

中尺度数值模式(MM5V3)在沈阳区域气象中心的试用   总被引：13，自引：6，他引：13  

周小珊  杨森  张立祥 《气象》2001,27(8):28-32

简单介绍了沈阳区域气象中心在微机上调试和试用中尺度数值模式MM5V3的情况，MM5V3在前、后处理上使用Fortran90编程，与MM5V2有一定差别，利用T106L19资料和常规探空报形成经、纬网格的初值，预处理场和侧边界，代入模式前处理系统中，模式运行完毕后，预报产品直接进入MICAPS、Vis5d、Grads系统，进行图形显示，在2000年汛期试用中发现，MM5V3对东北地区的强降水过程有一定的预报能力，预报评分表明，MM5V3的降水预报结果和MM5V2互有优劣，总体来看，MM5V3的预报质量略高于MM5V2。  相似文献   

2000年我国天气气候特点   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

陈峪 《气象》2001,27(4):20-24

2000年我国主要天气气候特点为：全国大部地区降水偏少或接近常年，出现全国性干旱，特别是北方地区春夏季遭遇多年来罕见的特大干旱，汛期未发生大范围的暴雨洪涝灾害，秋季黄淮以南地区出现持续连阴雨天气，全国大部分气温接近常年成偏高，持续暖冬态势发生转折，夏季高温酷热，春季北方扬沙和沙尘暴天气异常频繁，登陆我国台风个数偏少，风雹等强对流天气明显偏少。  相似文献   

THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND NEIGHBORING AREAS DURING IOP608 OF HUAMEX     

郑永光  王洪庆  陶祖钰  王立琨 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2001,7(2):154-162

The paper gives the distributions of the daily mean temperature of black body of satellite infrared images from June 7 to 10, 1998 during HUAMEX and examines 14 meso-α-scale convective systems and a number of meso-b-scale convective systems using the satellite infrared images at 1-h intervals. The mesoscale convective systems on June 7 and 9, which resulted in severe rainstorm over the middle of Taiwan and the estuary region of the Pearl River (Zhujiang R.), are emphatically analyzed. The serial development of mesoscale convective systems is revealed by the distributions of the black body temperature of satellite infrared images. The environmental conditions in which many mesoscale convective systems continuously occurred are diagnosed. The visualizing tool, LiveView, displays the link between the upper and lower horizontal wind fields and the vertical circulations and 3-dimensional trajectories of moist air motions, based on the data of objective analyses.  相似文献